§ Player file

tstroup

season Brier

14.623

60 questions scored

§ Calibration curve

Where confidence meets reality.

Each dot is a confidence bucket — the times you said roughly X%. The diagonal is perfect calibration. Above it: you were underconfident. Below it: overconfident. The faded curve is the group average.

§ The verdict

At 6% confidence you were right 50% of the time. Underconfident.

§ By bucket

When you said this…

1–10%

2 picks

you said 6%, you were right 50% of the time

+45

11–20%

2 picks

you said 16%, you were right 0% of the time

-16

21–30%

5 picks

you said 26%, you were right 20% of the time

-5

31–40%

5 picks

you said 36%, you were right 40% of the time

41–50%

10 picks

you said 46%, you were right 50% of the time

51–60%

14 picks

you said 56%, you were right 29% of the time

-27

61–70%

8 picks

you said 66%, you were right 25% of the time

-41

71–80%

6 picks

you said 76%, you were right 67% of the time

-9

81–90%

4 picks

you said 86%, you were right 75% of the time

-10

91–99%

4 picks

you said 95%, you were right 100% of the time

✦ Best picks

Sharpest calls.

W4·08Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between July 1 and July 5 (inclusive)?0.000
W5·07Will Phoenix, AZ (Sky Harbor) record a high temperature of 112F or higher on any day from July 7 to July 12 (inclusive)?0.002
W3·08Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 23 and June 28 (inclusive)?0.005

◊ Worst picks

Lessons paid for.

W1·08Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 8 and June 14 (inclusive)?0.980
W2·08Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between June 15 and June 21?0.774
W2·09Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 15 and June 21?0.563

§ Scorecard

The full record.

Every call you made — and what it cost. Picks appear once a week locks; each score lands as its question resolves.

Week 0· locked

Week 0 — The Practice Week

Week tally

0.000

10 / 10 scored

unofficial · counts Sunday

Will the New York Knicks win Game 1 of the NBA Finals (Wed June 3)?

you said 32%

Yes0.462

Will the May 2026 U.S. jobs report (released Fri June 5, 8:30am ET) show nonfarm payrolls above 150,000?

you said 61%

Yes0.152

Will Masters of the Universe outgross Scary Movie 6 in opening weekend domestic box office (June 5-7)?

you said 44%

No0.194

Will Bitcoin close above $77,000 on Friday June 5 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

you said 44%

No0.194

Will the higher-ATP-ranked player win the French Open Men's Singles Final (Sun June 7)?

you said 62%

Yes0.144

Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 5 than its open on Monday June 1?

you said 55%

No0.303

Will the home team win Game 1 of the NHL Stanley Cup Final (Tue June 2)?

you said 60%

No0.360

Will at least 5 MLB games go to extra innings between June 1 and June 7 (inclusive)?

you said 80%

Yes0.040

Will the AAA national average price of regular gasoline be above $3.50/gallon on Sunday June 7?

you said 99%

Yes0.000

Will Phoenix, AZ record a high of 110°F or higher on any day between June 1 and June 7?

you said 41%

No0.168

Week 1

Week 1 — Opening Line · locks Monday EOD

Week tally

0.000

10 / 10 scored

Will the New York Knicks win Game 4 of the NBA Finals vs San Antonio (Wed June 10)?

you said 61%

Yes0.152

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final vs Carolina (Tue June 9)?

you said 63%

No0.397

Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Friday June 12 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

you said 40%

No0.160

Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 12 than its open on Monday June 8?

you said 79%

Yes0.044

Will the May 2026 U.S. CPI report (released Wed June 10, 8:30am ET) show year-over-year inflation of 4.0% or higher?

you said 71%

Yes0.084

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thu June 11) come in higher than the prior week's revised figure?

you said 37%

Yes0.397

Will 'Scary Movie 6' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of June 12-14?

you said 64%

No0.410

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 8 and June 14 (inclusive)?

you said 1%

Yes0.980

Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 110F or higher on any day between June 8 and June 14?

you said 28%

Yes0.518

Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 8 and June 14?

you said 28%

No0.078

Week 2

Week 2 — The Number · locks Monday EOD

Week tally

0.000

10 / 10 scored

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 16 and June 21 (inclusive)?

you said 85%

Yes0.023

Will any MLB pitcher throw a no-hitter between June 16 and June 21 (inclusive)?

you said 25%

No0.063

Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Friday June 19 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

you said 72%

No0.518

Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 19 than its open on Monday June 15? (Resolution note: NYSE is closed Friday June 19 for Juneteenth — there is no June 19 close, so this resolves on the week's last actual close, Thursday June 18, vs Monday June 15's open.)

you said 60%

No0.360

Will the Federal Reserve leave its target interest rate unchanged at the June 17 FOMC decision?

you said 79%

Yes0.044

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday June 18) come in higher than the prior week's figure?

you said 55%

No0.303

Will 'Disclosure Day' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of June 19-21?

you said 68%

No0.462

Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between June 15 and June 21?

you said 88%

No0.774

Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 15 and June 21?

you said 75%

No0.563

Will an Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane be named between June 15 and June 21?

you said 45%

Yes0.303

Week 3

Week 3 — The Pitch

Week tally

0.000

10 / 10 scored

Will the United States win their World Cup group-stage match against Türkiye on Thursday June 25?

you said 61%

No0.372

Will Argentina beat Jordan in their World Cup group-stage match on Saturday June 27?

you said 78%

Yes0.048

Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Friday June 26 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

you said 43%

No0.185

Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 26 than its open on Monday June 22?

you said 55%

No0.303

Will the May 2026 U.S. PCE price index (released Thursday June 25, 8:30am ET) show headline inflation of 4.0% or higher year-over-year?

you said 33%

Yes0.449

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday June 25) come in higher than the prior week's revised figure?

you said 50%

No0.250

Will 'Supergirl' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of June 26-28?

you said 19%

No0.036

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 23 and June 28 (inclusive)?

you said 93%

Yes0.005

Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between June 23 and June 28?

you said 25%

No0.063

Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 23 and June 28?

you said 19%

No0.036

Week 4

Week 4 — Fireworks

Week tally

0.000

10 / 10 scored

Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 match played on July 4 or July 5 be decided by a penalty shootout?

you said 65%

No0.423

Will Jannik Sinner win his second-round match at Wimbledon (scheduled July 1-2)?

you said 82%

Yes0.032

Will Bitcoin close above $60,000 on Friday July 3 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

you said 45%

Yes0.303

Will the S&P 500 close higher on Thursday July 2 than its open on Monday June 29?

you said 51%

Yes0.240

Will the June 2026 U.S. jobs report (nonfarm payrolls, released Thursday July 2 at 8:30am ET) show payroll growth above 100,000?

you said 66%

No0.436

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday July 2) come in higher than the prior week's revised figure?

you said 50%

No0.250

Will 'Young Washington' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of July 3-5?

you said 10%

No0.010

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between July 1 and July 5 (inclusive)?

you said 99%

Yes0.000

Will Phoenix, AZ (Sky Harbor) record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between July 1 and July 5?

you said 22%

No0.048

Will the winner of the 2026 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest (men's, July 4) eat 70 or more hot dogs?

you said 60%

No0.360

Week 5

Week 5 — Knockout Rounds

Week tally

0.000

10 / 10 scored

Will Jannik Sinner reach the 2026 Wimbledon men's singles final?

you said 69%

Yes0.096

Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal (played July 9-11) be decided by a penalty shootout?

you said 60%

No0.360

Will Bitcoin close above $63,000 on Friday July 10 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

you said 54%

Yes0.212

Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 on Friday July 10, 2026?

you said 52%

Yes0.230

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday July 9) come in above 220,000?

you said 42%

No0.176

Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield close at or above 4.50% on Friday July 10 (per the U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve)?

you said 46%

Yes0.292

Will Phoenix, AZ (Sky Harbor) record a high temperature of 112F or higher on any day from July 7 to July 12 (inclusive)?

you said 96%

Yes0.002

Will Disney's live-action 'Moana' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of July 10-12?

you said 92%

Yes0.006

Will the United States men's national team beat Belgium in their World Cup Round of 16 match on July 6 (advancing to the quarterfinals)?

you said 56%

No0.314

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between July 7 and July 12 (inclusive)?

you said 82%

Yes0.032

Week 6

Week 6 — The Final Four

Week tally

0.000

10 / 10 scored

Will France beat Spain in their World Cup semifinal on July 14 (advancing to the final; extra time and penalties count)?

you said 57%

No0.325

Will Argentina beat England in their World Cup semifinal on July 15 (advancing to the final; extra time and penalties count)?

you said 48%

Yes0.270

Will the 2026 World Cup final on Sunday July 19 be decided in regulation time (a winner without needing extra time)?

you said 50%

No0.250

Will a Phillies player (Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber) win the Home Run Derby on Monday July 13?

you said 32%

No0.102

Will the National League win the MLB All-Star Game on Tuesday July 14?

you said 54%

No0.292

Will June CPI (released Tuesday July 14) come in at 4.0% or higher year-over-year (BLS headline, as first published)?

you said 34%

No0.116

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday July 16) come in above the prior week's initially-reported number?

you said 55%

No0.302

Will Bitcoin close above $63,000 on Friday July 17 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

you said 45%

Yes0.302

Will the S&P 500 close on Friday July 17 above its Monday July 13 opening level (official ^GSPC open)?

you said 55%

No0.302

Will Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey gross $100 million or more domestically in its opening weekend (July 17-19, per Sunday studio estimates via Comscore/Box Office Mojo)?

you said 60%

Yes0.160

Week 7· locked

DOG DAYS

Week tally

—

awaiting first result

unofficial · counts Sunday

Will the Philadelphia Phillies win their 3-game home series vs. the New York Yankees (July 24-26, Citizens Bank Park)? Resolves YES if the Phillies win at least 2 of the 3 games; a 2-1 or 3-0 Yankees result resolves NO. If fewer than 3 games are played, the series leader when the window closes wins (a 1-1 split resolves NO).

you said 49%

Awaiting—

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 3M Open on the PGA Tour (TPC Twin Cities, final round Sunday July 26)? Resolves YES only if Scheffler is the outright champion or wins a playoff; any other finish resolves NO.

you said 25%

Awaiting—

Will the winner of the Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix (Sunday July 26, Hungaroring) have started the race from grid position 1 (pole)? Resolves YES if the race winner also started 1st on the grid; NO otherwise.

you said 45%

Awaiting—

Will Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office on the July 24-26 weekend (its second weekend)? Resolves per Comscore weekend rankings (Sunday estimates / Monday actuals); any rank other than #1 resolves NO.

you said 95%

Awaiting—

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between Tuesday July 21 and Sunday July 26, 2026 (inclusive)? Resolves YES if at least one team's final run total is 15+ in any regular-season MLB game in that window.

you said 81%

Awaiting—

Will Bitcoin close ABOVE $64,000 on Friday July 24, 2026 (Coinbase BTC-USD, 5:00pm ET)? Resolves per the Coinbase BTC-USD price at 5:00pm ET on July 24; $64,000.00 or below resolves NO.

you said 55%

Awaiting—

Will the S&P 500 (^GSPC) close on Friday July 24 ABOVE its Monday July 21 opening level? Resolves per official ^GSPC values (Fri Jul 24 close vs. Mon Jul 21 open); equal or below resolves NO.

you said 55%

Awaiting—

Will U.S. initial jobless claims released Thursday July 23 (week ending July 18) come in ABOVE 208,000, the prior week's reported figure? Resolves per the DOL headline seasonally-adjusted initial-claims number as first released July 23; 208,000 or below resolves NO.

you said 62%

Awaiting—

Will the FINAL July University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (released Friday July 25) come in ABOVE the 54.4 July preliminary reading? Resolves per the official final July release; 54.4 or below resolves NO.

you said 46%

Awaiting—

Will Phoenix, Arizona reach 110F or higher on any day from Tuesday July 21 through Sunday July 26 (official NWS reading at Phoenix Sky Harbor, KPHX)? Resolves YES if the daily high is 110F+ on any day in the window per the KPHX daily climate report.

you said 93%

Awaiting—

SharpMiddlingCostly / forfeitPending