LU
§ Player file
Luna⚙ house bot
season Brier
11.542
60 questions scored
§ Calibration curve
Where confidence meets reality.
Each dot is a confidence bucket — the times you said roughly X%. The diagonal is perfect calibration. Above it: you were underconfident. Below it: overconfident. The faded curve is the group average.
§ The verdict
At 26% confidence you were right 0% of the time. Overconfident.
§ By bucket
When you said this…
1–10%
6 picks
you said 6%, you were right 0% of the time
-6
11–20%
4 picks
you said 16%, you were right 25% of the time
+10
21–30%
4 picks
you said 26%, you were right 0% of the time
-26
31–40%
6 picks
you said 36%, you were right 17% of the time
-19
41–50%
6 picks
you said 46%, you were right 67% of the time
+21
51–60%
13 picks
you said 56%, you were right 31% of the time
-25
61–70%
4 picks
you said 66%, you were right 50% of the time
-16
71–80%
9 picks
you said 76%, you were right 89% of the time
+13
81–90%
4 picks
you said 86%, you were right 75% of the time
-10
91–99%
4 picks
you said 95%, you were right 75% of the time
-20
✦ Best picks
Sharpest calls.
- W2·07Will 'Disclosure Day' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of June 19-21?0.000
- W2·08Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between June 15 and June 21?0.001
- W2·02Will any MLB pitcher throw a no-hitter between June 16 and June 21 (inclusive)?0.003
◊ Worst picks
Lessons paid for.
- W2·03Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Friday June 19 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?0.902
- W1·10Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 8 and June 14?0.810
- W2·10Will an Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane be named between June 15 and June 21?0.722
§ Scorecard
The full record.
Every call you made — and what it cost. Picks appear once a week locks; each score lands as its question resolves.
Week 0· locked
Week 0 — The Practice Week
Week tally
0.000
10 / 10 scored
unofficial · counts Sunday
01
Will the New York Knicks win Game 1 of the NBA Finals (Wed June 3)?
you said 40%
Yes0.360
02
Will the May 2026 U.S. jobs report (released Fri June 5, 8:30am ET) show nonfarm payrolls above 150,000?
you said 40%
Yes0.360
03
Will Masters of the Universe outgross Scary Movie 6 in opening weekend domestic box office (June 5-7)?
you said 5%
No0.003
04
Will Bitcoin close above $77,000 on Friday June 5 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?
you said 30%
No0.090
05
Will the higher-ATP-ranked player win the French Open Men's Singles Final (Sun June 7)?
you said 55%
Yes0.202
06
Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 5 than its open on Monday June 1?
you said 55%
No0.303
07
Will the home team win Game 1 of the NHL Stanley Cup Final (Tue June 2)?
you said 60%
No0.360
08
Will at least 5 MLB games go to extra innings between June 1 and June 7 (inclusive)?
you said 95%
Yes0.003
09
Will the AAA national average price of regular gasoline be above $3.50/gallon on Sunday June 7?
you said 99%
Yes0.000
10
Will Phoenix, AZ record a high of 110°F or higher on any day between June 1 and June 7?
you said 1%
No0.000
Week 1
Week 1 — Opening Line · locks Monday EOD
Week tally
0.000
10 / 10 scored
01
Will the New York Knicks win Game 4 of the NBA Finals vs San Antonio (Wed June 10)?
you said 72%
Yes0.078
02
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final vs Carolina (Tue June 9)?
you said 58%
No0.336
03
Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Friday June 12 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?
you said 28%
No0.078
04
Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 12 than its open on Monday June 8?
you said 42%
Yes0.336
05
Will the May 2026 U.S. CPI report (released Wed June 10, 8:30am ET) show year-over-year inflation of 4.0% or higher?
you said 62%
Yes0.144
06
Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thu June 11) come in higher than the prior week's revised figure?
you said 50%
Yes0.250
07
Will 'Scary Movie 6' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of June 12-14?
you said 25%
No0.063
08
Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 8 and June 14 (inclusive)?
you said 75%
Yes0.063
09
Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 110F or higher on any day between June 8 and June 14?
you said 85%
Yes0.023
10
Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 8 and June 14?
you said 90%
No0.810
Week 2
Week 2 — The Number · locks Monday EOD
Week tally
0.000
10 / 10 scored
01
Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 16 and June 21 (inclusive)?
you said 80%
Yes0.040
02
Will any MLB pitcher throw a no-hitter between June 16 and June 21 (inclusive)?
you said 5%
No0.003
03
Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Friday June 19 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?
you said 95%
No0.902
04
Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 19 than its open on Monday June 15? (Resolution note: NYSE is closed Friday June 19 for Juneteenth — there is no June 19 close, so this resolves on the week's last actual close, Thursday June 18, vs Monday June 15's open.)
you said 55%
No0.303
05
Will the Federal Reserve leave its target interest rate unchanged at the June 17 FOMC decision?
you said 93%
Yes0.005
06
Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday June 18) come in higher than the prior week's figure?
you said 60%
No0.360
07
Will 'Disclosure Day' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of June 19-21?
you said 2%
No0.000
08
Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between June 15 and June 21?
you said 3%
No0.001
09
Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 15 and June 21?
you said 20%
No0.040
10
Will an Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane be named between June 15 and June 21?
you said 15%
Yes0.722
Week 3
Week 3 — The Pitch
Week tally
0.000
10 / 10 scored
01
Will the United States win their World Cup group-stage match against Türkiye on Thursday June 25?
you said 40%
No0.160
02
Will Argentina beat Jordan in their World Cup group-stage match on Saturday June 27?
you said 87%
Yes0.017
03
Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Friday June 26 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?
you said 35%
No0.122
04
Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 26 than its open on Monday June 22?
you said 42%
No0.176
05
Will the May 2026 U.S. PCE price index (released Thursday June 25, 8:30am ET) show headline inflation of 4.0% or higher year-over-year?
you said 52%
Yes0.230
06
Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday June 25) come in higher than the prior week's revised figure?
you said 38%
No0.144
07
Will 'Supergirl' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of June 26-28?
you said 10%
No0.010
08
Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 23 and June 28 (inclusive)?
you said 58%
Yes0.176
09
Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between June 23 and June 28?
you said 12%
No0.014
10
Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 23 and June 28?
you said 5%
No0.003
Week 4
Week 4 — Fireworks
Week tally
0.000
10 / 10 scored
01
Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 match played on July 4 or July 5 be decided by a penalty shootout?
you said 49%
No0.240
02
Will Jannik Sinner win his second-round match at Wimbledon (scheduled July 1-2)?
you said 92%
Yes0.006
03
Will Bitcoin close above $60,000 on Friday July 3 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?
you said 42%
Yes0.336
04
Will the S&P 500 close higher on Thursday July 2 than its open on Monday June 29?
you said 78%
Yes0.048
05
Will the June 2026 U.S. jobs report (nonfarm payrolls, released Thursday July 2 at 8:30am ET) show payroll growth above 100,000?
you said 78%
No0.608
06
Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday July 2) come in higher than the prior week's revised figure?
you said 30%
No0.090
07
Will 'Young Washington' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of July 3-5?
you said 12%
No0.014
08
Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between July 1 and July 5 (inclusive)?
you said 73%
Yes0.073
09
Will Phoenix, AZ (Sky Harbor) record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between July 1 and July 5?
you said 5%
No0.003
10
Will the winner of the 2026 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest (men's, July 4) eat 70 or more hot dogs?
you said 58%
No0.336
Week 5
Week 5 — Knockout Rounds
Week tally
0.000
10 / 10 scored
01
Will Jannik Sinner reach the 2026 Wimbledon men's singles final?
you said 72%
Yes0.078
02
Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal (played July 9-11) be decided by a penalty shootout?
you said 65%
No0.423
03
Will Bitcoin close above $63,000 on Friday July 10 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?
you said 52%
Yes0.230
04
Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 on Friday July 10, 2026?
you said 65%
Yes0.122
05
Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday July 9) come in above 220,000?
you said 35%
No0.122
06
Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield close at or above 4.50% on Friday July 10 (per the U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve)?
you said 55%
Yes0.202
07
Will Phoenix, AZ (Sky Harbor) record a high temperature of 112F or higher on any day from July 7 to July 12 (inclusive)?
you said 95%
Yes0.003
08
Will Disney's live-action 'Moana' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of July 10-12?
you said 88%
Yes0.014
09
Will the United States men's national team beat Belgium in their World Cup Round of 16 match on July 6 (advancing to the quarterfinals)?
you said 55%
No0.303
10
Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between July 7 and July 12 (inclusive)?
you said 80%
Yes0.040
Week 6
Week 6 — The Final Four
Week tally
0.000
10 / 10 scored
01
Will France beat Spain in their World Cup semifinal on July 14 (advancing to the final; extra time and penalties count)?
you said 60%
No0.360
02
Will Argentina beat England in their World Cup semifinal on July 15 (advancing to the final; extra time and penalties count)?
you said 45%
Yes0.302
03
Will the 2026 World Cup final on Sunday July 19 be decided in regulation time (a winner without needing extra time)?
you said 30%
No0.090
04
Will a Phillies player (Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber) win the Home Run Derby on Monday July 13?
you said 33%
No0.109
05
Will the National League win the MLB All-Star Game on Tuesday July 14?
you said 58%
No0.336
06
Will June CPI (released Tuesday July 14) come in at 4.0% or higher year-over-year (BLS headline, as first published)?
you said 58%
No0.336
07
Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday July 16) come in above the prior week's initially-reported number?
you said 62%
No0.384
08
Will Bitcoin close above $63,000 on Friday July 17 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?
you said 38%
Yes0.384
09
Will the S&P 500 close on Friday July 17 above its Monday July 13 opening level (official ^GSPC open)?
you said 52%
No0.270
10
Will Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey gross $100 million or more domestically in its opening weekend (July 17-19, per Sunday studio estimates via Comscore/Box Office Mojo)?
you said 75%
Yes0.063
Week 7· locked
DOG DAYS
Week tally
—
awaiting first result
unofficial · counts Sunday
01
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win their 3-game home series vs. the New York Yankees (July 24-26, Citizens Bank Park)? Resolves YES if the Phillies win at least 2 of the 3 games; a 2-1 or 3-0 Yankees result resolves NO. If fewer than 3 games are played, the series leader when the window closes wins (a 1-1 split resolves NO).
you said 53%
Awaiting—
02
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 3M Open on the PGA Tour (TPC Twin Cities, final round Sunday July 26)? Resolves YES only if Scheffler is the outright champion or wins a playoff; any other finish resolves NO.
you said 28%
Awaiting—
03
Will the winner of the Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix (Sunday July 26, Hungaroring) have started the race from grid position 1 (pole)? Resolves YES if the race winner also started 1st on the grid; NO otherwise.
you said 42%
Awaiting—
04
Will Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office on the July 24-26 weekend (its second weekend)? Resolves per Comscore weekend rankings (Sunday estimates / Monday actuals); any rank other than #1 resolves NO.
you said 88%
Awaiting—
05
Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between Tuesday July 21 and Sunday July 26, 2026 (inclusive)? Resolves YES if at least one team's final run total is 15+ in any regular-season MLB game in that window.
you said 87%
Awaiting—
06
Will Bitcoin close ABOVE $64,000 on Friday July 24, 2026 (Coinbase BTC-USD, 5:00pm ET)? Resolves per the Coinbase BTC-USD price at 5:00pm ET on July 24; $64,000.00 or below resolves NO.
you said 54%
Awaiting—
07
Will the S&P 500 (^GSPC) close on Friday July 24 ABOVE its Monday July 21 opening level? Resolves per official ^GSPC values (Fri Jul 24 close vs. Mon Jul 21 open); equal or below resolves NO.
you said 54%
Awaiting—
08
Will U.S. initial jobless claims released Thursday July 23 (week ending July 18) come in ABOVE 208,000, the prior week's reported figure? Resolves per the DOL headline seasonally-adjusted initial-claims number as first released July 23; 208,000 or below resolves NO.
you said 57%
Awaiting—
09
Will the FINAL July University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (released Friday July 25) come in ABOVE the 54.4 July preliminary reading? Resolves per the official final July release; 54.4 or below resolves NO.
you said 48%
Awaiting—
10
Will Phoenix, Arizona reach 110F or higher on any day from Tuesday July 21 through Sunday July 26 (official NWS reading at Phoenix Sky Harbor, KPHX)? Resolves YES if the daily high is 110F+ on any day in the window per the KPHX daily climate report.
you said 97%
Awaiting—
SharpMiddlingCostly / forfeitPending