The Calibration Tournament
§ Week 9 · CRUDE AWAKENING

The week, scored.

For each question: how the group spread their bets, what actually happened, and the calibration lesson it taught.

#01 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will the winning score at the Wyndham Championship (Sedgefield Country Club, final round Sunday August 9) be 20-under-par or better? Resolves YES if the champion's 72-hole total is 20 strokes under par or lower, per the official PGA TOUR final leaderboard. If the tournament is shortened to fewer than 72 holes, resolves per the official winning score as declared by the PGA TOUR relative to the par for holes played. Note: Sedgefield is a par 70.

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N = 8mean = 68.6% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Michael Brennan won at 22 under (258 total, par-70 Sedgefield). The line was 20 under - cleared by two. YES

#02 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will the combined score in the NFL Hall of Fame Game (Arizona Cardinals vs Carolina Panthers, Thursday August 6, 8:00pm ET, Canton OH) be MORE THAN 30 points? Resolves per the official final NFL box score, both teams' points added together. Exactly 30 resolves NO. If the game is shortened by weather or any other cause, resolves per the official final score as declared by the NFL. If the game is not played at all before this week resolves, resolves NO.

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N = 8mean = 65.4% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Panthers 33, Cardinals 30 in Canton - 63 combined, more than double the line. Preseason scoring runs hotter than the folklore number. YES

#03 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will any MLB game feature 20 or more combined runs (both teams added together) between Wednesday August 5 and Sunday August 9, 2026 (inclusive)? Resolves YES if at least one regular-season MLB game in that window finishes with the two teams' runs totalling 20 or more, per official box scores.

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N = 8mean = 65.5% outcome bucket
§ lesson

White Sox at Red Sox finished 12-11 on Aug 6 - 23 combined runs, decided with three days of window to spare. YES

#04 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will the New York Yankees win the series against the Atlanta Braves (3 games, Friday August 7 - Sunday August 9, at Yankee Stadium)? Resolves YES if the Yankees win 2 or more of the 3 scheduled games, per official box scores. If any game is postponed and not completed before this week resolves, resolution is based on the games actually completed in the window; a 1-1 split with the third game unplayed resolves NO, because the Yankees must have won the series and a tie is not a series win.

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N = 8mean = 53.6% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Yankees took Friday 3-2 and Saturday 5-4 at the Stadium - series clinched before Sunday first pitch. YES

#05 · marketsRESOLVED · NO

Will Brent crude (ICE front-month) settle BELOW $80.00 on Friday August 7, 2026? Resolves per the official ICE Brent front-month settlement price for August 7. Exactly $80.00 or above resolves NO.

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N = 8mean = 48.9% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Brent front-month settled 83.55 USD on Friday Aug 7 after rebounding from the Aug 4 washout low near 79.36 - never close to the 80 line at the bell. NO

#06 · marketsRESOLVED · YES

Will the S&P 500 (^GSPC) close ABOVE 7600.00 on Friday August 7, 2026? Resolves per the official ^GSPC closing value for August 7. Exactly 7600.00 or below resolves NO.

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N = 8mean = 67.0% outcome bucket
§ lesson

SPX closed 7757.64 on Friday Aug 7 - an all-time record close, 157 points above the 7600 line. YES

#07 · newsRESOLVED · NO

Will the July 2026 unemployment rate (BLS Employment Situation, released Friday August 7, 8:30am ET) come in ABOVE 4.2%? Resolves per the BLS headline seasonally-adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for July 2026, as first released. Exactly 4.2% resolves NO. Later revisions do not change the resolution.

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N = 8mean = 41.9% outcome bucket
§ lesson

July unemployment printed 4.1 percent, DOWN from 4.2 - while payrolls FELL 23K. The rate dropped because the labor force shrank, not because hiring boomed. NO

#08 · newsRESOLVED · NO

Will initial jobless claims released Thursday August 6, 2026 (week ending August 1) come in ABOVE 200,000? Resolves per the DOL headline seasonally-adjusted initial claims figure as first released. Exactly 200,000 resolves NO. Later revisions do not change the resolution.

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N = 8mean = 48.0% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Initial claims printed 199,000 - one thousand under the line, third straight sub-200K week. NO

#09 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will 'Spider-Man: Brand New Day' drop MORE THAN 60% in domestic box office from its first weekend to its second (Friday August 7 - Sunday August 9)? Resolves per the Sunday estimates reported Sunday August 9 (Comscore / studio), compared against the $355 million first-weekend figure reported on Sunday estimates August 2. Monday actuals are NOT used, for either weekend. A drop of exactly 60.0% resolves NO. A drop of more than 60% means a second weekend below $142.0M.

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N = 8mean = 53.1% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Sunday estimates: Deadline, TheWrap and Yahoo reported 143M; Variety later reported 145M. From 355M that is a 59.2-59.7 percent drop. The question converted 60 percent into a hard line - below 142.0M - precisely so loose trade prose like at-least-60-percent could not decide it. Every reported estimate sits at or above 143M. NO

#10 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will Phoenix (KPHX, Sky Harbor) reach 112F or higher on any day between Wednesday August 5 and Sunday August 9, 2026 (inclusive)? Resolves YES if the official NWS/NOAA daily maximum temperature at KPHX is 112F or higher on any of those five calendar dates, per NOAA daily summaries. 111F resolves NO.

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N = 8mean = 61.3% outcome bucket
§ lesson

KPHX official high hit 113F on Saturday Aug 8 per the NWS daily climate report - cleared the 112 line with a day to spare. YES

est. 2026 · ten weeks · ten questions

“The number you submit is yours. The math is just keeping score.”

Calibrate or perish.
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