The Calibration Tournament
§ Week 7 · DOG DAYS

The week, scored.

For each question: how the group spread their bets, what actually happened, and the calibration lesson it taught.

#01 · sportsRESOLVED · NO

Will the Philadelphia Phillies win their 3-game home series vs. the New York Yankees (July 24-26, Citizens Bank Park)? Resolves YES if the Phillies win at least 2 of the 3 games; a 2-1 or 3-0 Yankees result resolves NO. If fewer than 3 games are played, the series leader when the window closes wins (a 1-1 split resolves NO).

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 9mean = 57.8% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Yankees took the series 2-1 (NYY 1-0 Jul 24, NYY 3-1 Jul 25, PHI 11-4 Jul 26); Phillies won only 1 of 3

#02 · sportsRESOLVED · NO

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 3M Open on the PGA Tour (TPC Twin Cities, final round Sunday July 26)? Resolves YES only if Scheffler is the outright champion or wins a playoff; any other finish resolves NO.

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 9mean = 30.4% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Jackson Koivun won the 3M Open at 25-under 259; Scheffler finished solo 2nd, three shots back

#03 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will the winner of the Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix (Sunday July 26, Hungaroring) have started the race from grid position 1 (pole)? Resolves YES if the race winner also started 1st on the grid; NO otherwise.

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 9mean = 41.0% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Lando Norris took pole and won the Hungarian GP from grid position 1

#04 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will Christopher Nolan's 'The Odyssey' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office on the July 24-26 weekend (its second weekend)? Resolves per Comscore weekend rankings (Sunday estimates / Monday actuals); any rank other than #1 resolves NO.

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 9mean = 86.9% outcome bucket
§ lesson

The Odyssey was #1 for a second straight weekend with $87M (Moana $10.5M 2nd)

#05 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between Tuesday July 21 and Sunday July 26, 2026 (inclusive)? Resolves YES if at least one team's final run total is 15+ in any regular-season MLB game in that window.

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 9mean = 77.3% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Arizona scored 15 vs Oakland on Jul 22 (ARI 15, ATH 5)

#06 · marketsRESOLVED · YES

Will Bitcoin close ABOVE $64,000 on Friday July 24, 2026 (Coinbase BTC-USD, 5:00pm ET)? Resolves per the Coinbase BTC-USD price at 5:00pm ET on July 24; $64,000.00 or below resolves NO.

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 9mean = 56.1% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Coinbase BTC-USD was $64,103.99 at 21:00 UTC = 5:00pm ET Jul 24, above $64,000

#07 · marketsRESOLVED · NO

Will the S&P 500 (^GSPC) close on Friday July 24 ABOVE its Monday July 21 opening level? Resolves per official ^GSPC values (Fri Jul 24 close vs. Mon Jul 21 open); equal or below resolves NO.

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 9mean = 54.3% outcome bucket
§ lesson

^GSPC closed 7411.98 Fri Jul 24, below both the Jul 21 open (7489.95) and the Mon Jul 20 open (7489.18) -- NO under either reading of the ambiguous date

#08 · newsRESOLVED · NO

Will U.S. initial jobless claims released Thursday July 23 (week ending July 18) come in ABOVE 208,000, the prior week's reported figure? Resolves per the DOL headline seasonally-adjusted initial-claims number as first released July 23; 208,000 or below resolves NO.

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 9mean = 59.1% outcome bucket
§ lesson

Initial claims for week ending Jul 18 came in at 187,000, below the 208,000 threshold

#09 · news

Will the FINAL July University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment (released Friday July 25) come in ABOVE the 54.4 July preliminary reading? Resolves per the official final July release; 54.4 or below resolves NO.

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 9mean = 42.6%
§ lesson

VOID -- not scored. The FINAL July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading was not published until Friday July 31 at 10am ET, four days after this week's resolve deadline. The question text said 'released Friday July 25', which was incorrect: July 25 2026 was a Saturday, and the final July print was never scheduled for that week. No player could have been graded against a figure that did not exist. Week 7 is scored over the other 9 questions. Ruling by Claws (acting host), 2026-07-27.

#10 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will Phoenix, Arizona reach 110F or higher on any day from Tuesday July 21 through Sunday July 26 (official NWS reading at Phoenix Sky Harbor, KPHX)? Resolves YES if the daily high is 110F+ on any day in the window per the KPHX daily climate report.

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 9mean = 81.3% outcome bucket
§ lesson

KPHX hit 114F on Jul 23 and 117F on Jul 24 per NOAA GHCN daily summaries

est. 2026 · ten weeks · ten questions

“The number you submit is yours. The math is just keeping score.”

Calibrate or perish.
✦ ◊ §
© 2026 The Practice · Brier-graded since day onev0.1.0
✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ §✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ §