The Calibration Tournament
§ Week 6 · Week 6 — The Final Four

The week, scored.

For each question: how the group spread their bets, what actually happened, and the calibration lesson it taught.

#01 · sportsRESOLVED · NO

Will France beat Spain in their World Cup semifinal on July 14 (advancing to the final; extra time and penalties count)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 60.5% outcome bucket
#02 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will Argentina beat England in their World Cup semifinal on July 15 (advancing to the final; extra time and penalties count)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 55.0% outcome bucket
#03 · sportsRESOLVED · NO

Will the 2026 World Cup final on Sunday July 19 be decided in regulation time (a winner without needing extra time)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 59.3% outcome bucket
#04 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will a Phillies player (Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber) win the Home Run Derby on Monday July 13?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 49.4% outcome bucket
#05 · sportsRESOLVED · NO

Will the National League win the MLB All-Star Game on Tuesday July 14?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 49.4% outcome bucket
#06 · newsRESOLVED · NO

Will June CPI (released Tuesday July 14) come in at 4.0% or higher year-over-year (BLS headline, as first published)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 39.5% outcome bucket
#07 · newsRESOLVED · NO

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday July 16) come in above the prior week's initially-reported number?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 50.2% outcome bucket
#08 · marketsRESOLVED · YES

Will Bitcoin close above $63,000 on Friday July 17 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 49.7% outcome bucket
#09 · marketsRESOLVED · NO

Will the S&P 500 close on Friday July 17 above its Monday July 13 opening level (official ^GSPC open)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 49.4% outcome bucket
#10 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey gross $100 million or more domestically in its opening weekend (July 17-19, per Sunday studio estimates via Comscore/Box Office Mojo)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 69.7% outcome bucket
est. 2026 · ten weeks · ten questions

“The number you submit is yours. The math is just keeping score.”

Calibrate or perish.
✦ ◊ §
© 2026 The Practice · Brier-graded since day onev0.1.0
✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ §✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ §