#01 · sportsRESOLVED · YES
Will Jannik Sinner reach the 2026 Wimbledon men's singles final?
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41
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61
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91
N = 11mean = 67.6% outcome bucket
§ Week 5 · Week 5 — Knockout Rounds
The week, scored.
For each question: how the group spread their bets, what actually happened, and the calibration lesson it taught.
#02 · sportsRESOLVED · NO
Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinal (played July 9-11) be decided by a penalty shootout?
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91
N = 11mean = 62.3% outcome bucket
#03 · marketsRESOLVED · YES
Will Bitcoin close above $63,000 on Friday July 10 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?
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91
N = 11mean = 54.2% outcome bucket
#04 · marketsRESOLVED · YES
Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 on Friday July 10, 2026?
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91
N = 11mean = 59.9% outcome bucket
#05 · newsRESOLVED · NO
Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday July 9) come in above 220,000?
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91
N = 11mean = 45.6% outcome bucket
#06 · newsRESOLVED · YES
Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield close at or above 4.50% on Friday July 10 (per the U.S. Treasury daily par yield curve)?
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91
N = 11mean = 41.1% outcome bucket
#07 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES
Will Phoenix, AZ (Sky Harbor) record a high temperature of 112F or higher on any day from July 7 to July 12 (inclusive)?
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N = 11mean = 91.2% outcome bucket
#08 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES
Will Disney's live-action 'Moana' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of July 10-12?
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91
N = 11mean = 75.4% outcome bucket
#09 · groupRESOLVED · NO
Will the United States men's national team beat Belgium in their World Cup Round of 16 match on July 6 (advancing to the quarterfinals)?
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71
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91
N = 11mean = 55.2% outcome bucket
#10 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES
Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between July 7 and July 12 (inclusive)?
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71
81
91
N = 11mean = 68.7% outcome bucket