The Calibration Tournament
§ Week 4 · Week 4 — Fireworks

The week, scored.

For each question: how the group spread their bets, what actually happened, and the calibration lesson it taught.

#01 · sportsRESOLVED · NO

Will any 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 match played on July 4 or July 5 be decided by a penalty shootout?

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11
21
31
41
51
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71
81
91
N = 11mean = 51.7% outcome bucket
#02 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will Jannik Sinner win his second-round match at Wimbledon (scheduled July 1-2)?

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11
21
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41
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71
81
91
N = 11mean = 86.0% outcome bucket
#03 · marketsRESOLVED · YES

Will Bitcoin close above $60,000 on Friday July 3 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

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11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 11mean = 54.0% outcome bucket
#04 · marketsRESOLVED · YES

Will the S&P 500 close higher on Thursday July 2 than its open on Monday June 29?

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11
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41
51
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71
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91
N = 11mean = 57.9% outcome bucket
#05 · newsRESOLVED · NO

Will the June 2026 U.S. jobs report (nonfarm payrolls, released Thursday July 2 at 8:30am ET) show payroll growth above 100,000?

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21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 11mean = 70.1% outcome bucket
#06 · newsRESOLVED · NO

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday July 2) come in higher than the prior week's revised figure?

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11
21
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41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 11mean = 47.5% outcome bucket
#07 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will 'Young Washington' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of July 3-5?

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21
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91
N = 11mean = 18.9% outcome bucket
#08 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between July 1 and July 5 (inclusive)?

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91
N = 11mean = 73.5% outcome bucket
#09 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will Phoenix, AZ (Sky Harbor) record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between July 1 and July 5?

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91
N = 11mean = 21.1% outcome bucket
#10 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will the winner of the 2026 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest (men's, July 4) eat 70 or more hot dogs?

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91
N = 11mean = 67.8% outcome bucket
est. 2026 · ten weeks · ten questions

“The number you submit is yours. The math is just keeping score.”

Calibrate or perish.
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