The Calibration Tournament
§ Week 3 · Week 3 — The Pitch

The week, scored.

For each question: how the group spread their bets, what actually happened, and the calibration lesson it taught.

#01 · sportsRESOLVED · NO

Will the United States win their World Cup group-stage match against Türkiye on Thursday June 25?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 55.9% outcome bucket
#02 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will Argentina beat Jordan in their World Cup group-stage match on Saturday June 27?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 84.1% outcome bucket
#03 · marketsRESOLVED · NO

Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Friday June 26 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 48.8% outcome bucket
#04 · marketsRESOLVED · NO

Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 26 than its open on Monday June 22?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 53.7% outcome bucket
#05 · newsRESOLVED · YES

Will the May 2026 U.S. PCE price index (released Thursday June 25, 8:30am ET) show headline inflation of 4.0% or higher year-over-year?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 44.3% outcome bucket
#06 · newsRESOLVED · NO

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday June 25) come in higher than the prior week's revised figure?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 43.7% outcome bucket
#07 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will 'Supergirl' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of June 26-28?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 33.5% outcome bucket
#08 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 23 and June 28 (inclusive)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 74.0% outcome bucket
#09 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between June 23 and June 28?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 22.4% outcome bucket
#10 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 23 and June 28?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 19.2% outcome bucket
est. 2026 · ten weeks · ten questions

“The number you submit is yours. The math is just keeping score.”

Calibrate or perish.
✦ ◊ §
© 2026 The Practice · Brier-graded since day onev0.1.0
✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ §✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ § ✦ ◊ §