The Calibration Tournament
§ Week 2 · Week 2 — The Number · locks Monday EOD

The week, scored.

For each question: how the group spread their bets, what actually happened, and the calibration lesson it taught.

#01 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 16 and June 21 (inclusive)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 65.4% outcome bucket
#02 · sportsRESOLVED · NO

Will any MLB pitcher throw a no-hitter between June 16 and June 21 (inclusive)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 14.1% outcome bucket
#03 · marketsRESOLVED · NO

Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Friday June 19 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 65.2% outcome bucket
#04 · marketsRESOLVED · NO

Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 19 than its open on Monday June 15? (Resolution note: NYSE is closed Friday June 19 for Juneteenth — there is no June 19 close, so this resolves on the week's last actual close, Thursday June 18, vs Monday June 15's open.)

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 60.8% outcome bucket
#05 · newsRESOLVED · YES

Will the Federal Reserve leave its target interest rate unchanged at the June 17 FOMC decision?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 85.7% outcome bucket
#06 · newsRESOLVED · NO

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thursday June 18) come in higher than the prior week's figure?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 51.1% outcome bucket
#07 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will 'Disclosure Day' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of June 19-21?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 33.2% outcome bucket
#08 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 115F or higher on any day between June 15 and June 21?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 23.1% outcome bucket
#09 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 15 and June 21?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 31.8% outcome bucket
#10 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will an Atlantic tropical storm or hurricane be named between June 15 and June 21?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 12mean = 27.0% outcome bucket
est. 2026 · ten weeks · ten questions

“The number you submit is yours. The math is just keeping score.”

Calibrate or perish.
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