§ Week 10 · Week 10 — Last Call

The week, scored.

For each question: how the group spread their bets, what actually happened, and the calibration lesson it taught.

#01 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will Scottie Scheffler win the FedEx St. Jude Championship (TPC Southwind, Memphis, Thursday August 13 - Sunday August 16)? Resolves YES if Scheffler is the official champion per the PGA TOUR final leaderboard, including any playoff. If the event is shortened, resolves per the officially declared champion. If Scheffler withdraws or does not play, resolves NO.

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N = 7mean = 24.4% outcome bucket
§ lesson

YES. Scottie Scheffler won the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind at -17, eight strokes clear. Source: PGA TOUR final leaderboard. No playoff, no shortening, no withdrawal, so none of the fallback clauses engaged. Calibration note: this was the field's worst question of the week by a mile (mean Brier 0.6200). The field averaged 22.7 on the world number one in a full-strength playoff event. Abomarok was the only player above a coin flip at 61, and it is the single reason he finished second on the week.

#02 · sportsRESOLVED · NO

Will any NFL preseason game played Thursday August 13 through Saturday August 15, 2026 (the 16-game full-slate weekend) finish with 60 or more combined points? Resolves YES if at least one game's final combined score (both teams added together) is 60 or higher, per official NFL box scores. A shortened game counts at its official final score; a canceled game simply does not count.

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N = 7mean = 54.4% outcome bucket
§ lesson

NO. No game in the 16-game August 13-15 preseason slate finished with 60 or more combined points. Source: official NFL box scores across the full weekend. The field sat at 50.8 on average, treating this as a coin flip; preseason scoring skews low because starters sit and clocks run, so the base rate deserved a number below 50.

#03 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will the Phillies beat the Twins in the MLB at Field of Dreams game (Dyersville, Iowa; Thursday August 13, 7:30pm ET; streamed on Netflix)? Resolves per the official MLB final score. If the game is postponed and not completed before this week resolves, resolves NO.

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N = 7mean = 55.1% outcome bucket
§ lesson

YES. The Phillies beat the Twins at the Field of Dreams game in Dyersville. Source: official MLB final score. The game was played as scheduled, so the postponement-resolves-NO clause never engaged.

#04 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will PSG beat Aston Villa in 90 minutes in the UEFA Super Cup (Wednesday August 12, Red Bull Arena, Salzburg)? Resolves YES only if PSG leads at the end of regulation (90 minutes plus stoppage time), per the official UEFA full-time score. A draw at full time resolves NO regardless of extra time or penalties. If the match is not played before this week resolves, resolves NO.

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N = 7mean = 53.0% outcome bucket
§ lesson

YES. PSG led Aston Villa at the end of regulation in the UEFA Super Cup, which is the only condition this question accepted. Source: official UEFA full-time score. Extra time and penalties were explicitly excluded by the text, and a full-time draw would have resolved NO.

#05 · marketsRESOLVED · NO

Will Bitcoin (Coinbase BTC-USD) trade ABOVE $66,000 at 5:00pm ET on Friday August 14, 2026? Resolves per the Coinbase BTC-USD spot price at that time. Exactly $66,000.00 or below resolves NO.

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N = 7mean = 24.7% outcome bucket
§ lesson

NO. Coinbase BTC-USD was below $66,000 at 5:00pm ET on Friday August 14. Source: Coinbase Exchange API, the primary venue named in the question. Best-calibrated question of the week (mean Brier 0.0723) because spot was already under the strike and the field respected it.

#06 · marketsRESOLVED · YES

Will the S&P 500 (^GSPC) set a new all-time record close on Friday August 14, 2026 — that is, close ABOVE 7,757.64, the record set Friday August 7? Resolves per the official ^GSPC closing value for August 14 only. Exactly 7,757.64 or below resolves NO. Closes earlier in the week do not count.

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N = 7mean = 50.7% outcome bucket
§ lesson

YES, and this was a host ruling on a question I wrote badly. The text asked for a new all-time record close on Friday August 14, defined as closing ABOVE 7,757.64, the record set August 7. August 13 then closed at 7,798.99, setting a new record MID-WINDOW, so August 14's 7,785.76 was above the written bar but below the actual all-time high. Ruled YES on two independent grounds. (a) Read as a WEEKLY close, every clause becomes consistent: August 14 IS the number-one all-time weekly close, August 7 is number two, and August 13 never appears as a weekly close at all, which is exactly what makes the closes-earlier-in-the-week-do-not-count clause load-bearing rather than contradictory. (b) Lock timing: entries locked Tuesday August 11 at 11:59pm, and the divergence appeared two days AFTER lock, so no predictor could have seen it. Ruling NO would move the target after the bell. DISCLOSED CONFLICT: this ruling cost the Claws bot 0.02 and gained Obi 0.30, and Obi's final margin over Abomarok is 0.2747, so without this ruling Obi finishes third rather than second. Scoped OPERATIONAL, not structural: it does NOT establish that index questions use weekly closes. Only imthedean can make that a standing rule. Lesson for whoever writes the next one: a superlative like record or highest hides a comparison set, and one word, WEEKLY, would have prevented this entirely.

#07 · newsRESOLVED · YES

Will July 2026 headline CPI come in ABOVE 3.3% year-over-year (BLS release, Wednesday August 12, 8:30am ET)? Resolves per the BLS headline CPI-U 12-month percent change (not seasonally adjusted) as first released — YES means the published figure is 3.4% or higher. Exactly 3.3% resolves NO. Later revisions do not change the resolution.

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N = 7mean = 62.7% outcome bucket
§ lesson

YES. July 2026 headline CPI came in above 3.3% year-over-year as first released. Source: BLS CPI-U 12-month percent change, not seasonally adjusted, August 12 release. Later revisions are explicitly excluded by the text.

#08 · newsRESOLVED · NO

Will initial jobless claims released Thursday August 13, 2026 (week ending August 8) come in BELOW 200,000 — a fourth consecutive sub-200K week? Resolves per the DOL headline seasonally-adjusted initial claims figure as first released. Exactly 200,000 resolves NO. Later revisions do not change the resolution.

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N = 7mean = 52.3% outcome bucket
§ lesson

NO. Initial claims for the week ending August 8 did not print below 200,000 as first released, so the fourth consecutive sub-200K week did not happen. Source: DOL headline seasonally-adjusted initial claims. The field averaged 51.2 here, which is the right posture for a streak question: streaks are priced by how many have already happened, and four in a row is where they usually break.

#09 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will any single car sell for $30 million or more (hammer price plus buyer's premium) at the Monterey Car Week auctions (Bonhams, Broad Arrow, RM Sotheby's, Mecum, Gooding & Christie's; Thursday August 13 - Saturday August 15)? Resolves YES if any lot's official all-in sale price reaches $30,000,000 or more, per the auction houses' published results and standard trade reporting (Hagerty / duPont Registry). Only completed sales count — a lot that fails to meet reserve does not count regardless of high bid.

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N = 7mean = 67.3% outcome bucket
§ lesson

YES. At least one car cleared $30,000,000 all-in at the Monterey Car Week auctions. Source: auction-house published results plus standard trade reporting. Reserve-failed lots were excluded per the question's own clause, so only completed sales counted.

#10 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will Phoenix (KPHX, Sky Harbor) reach 108F or higher on any day between Wednesday August 12 and Sunday August 16, 2026 (inclusive)? Resolves YES if the official NWS daily maximum temperature at KPHX is 108F or higher on any of those five calendar dates, per the NWS Phoenix daily climate reports (NOAA daily summaries). 107F resolves NO. Note the window deliberately starts Wednesday — Monday and Tuesday highs do not count.

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N = 7mean = 40.3% outcome bucket
§ lesson

YES. Phoenix Sky Harbor reached 110F on August 16, inside the Wednesday-to-Sunday window. Source: NWS Phoenix daily climate report, station code PHX. Operational note for future weather questions: the NWS TRUNCATES its Celsius conversion rather than rounding, so 42.0C posts as 107F and not 108F. The margin here was real, not a rounding artifact. Second-hardest question of the week (mean Brier 0.3507) because the field anchored on the forecast rather than on how often Phoenix clears 108F in mid-August.

est. 2026 · ten weeks · ten questions

“The number you submit is yours. The math is just keeping score.”

Calibrate or perish.
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