The Calibration Tournament
§ Week 1 · Week 1 — Opening Line · locks Monday EOD

The week, scored.

For each question: how the group spread their bets, what actually happened, and the calibration lesson it taught.

#01 · sportsRESOLVED · YES

Will the New York Knicks win Game 4 of the NBA Finals vs San Antonio (Wed June 10)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 65.1% outcome bucket
#02 · sportsRESOLVED · NO

Will the Vegas Golden Knights win Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final vs Carolina (Tue June 9)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 48.4% outcome bucket
#03 · marketsRESOLVED · NO

Will Bitcoin close above $65,000 on Friday June 12 (Coinbase 5pm ET close)?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 43.3% outcome bucket
#04 · marketsRESOLVED · YES

Will the S&P 500 close higher on Friday June 12 than its open on Monday June 8?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 56.8% outcome bucket
#05 · newsRESOLVED · YES

Will the May 2026 U.S. CPI report (released Wed June 10, 8:30am ET) show year-over-year inflation of 4.0% or higher?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 55.2% outcome bucket
#06 · newsRESOLVED · YES

Will U.S. initial jobless claims (released Thu June 11) come in higher than the prior week's revised figure?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 43.4% outcome bucket
#07 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will 'Scary Movie 6' finish #1 at the U.S. domestic box office for the weekend of June 12-14?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 39.2% outcome bucket
#08 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will any MLB team score 15 or more runs in a single game between June 8 and June 14 (inclusive)?

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11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 61.8% outcome bucket
#09 · wildcardRESOLVED · YES

Will Phoenix, AZ record a high temperature of 110F or higher on any day between June 8 and June 14?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 53.7% outcome bucket
#10 · wildcardRESOLVED · NO

Will New York City (Central Park) reach a high of 90F or higher on any day between June 8 and June 14?

1
11
21
31
41
51
61
71
81
91
N = 10mean = 52.8% outcome bucket
est. 2026 · ten weeks · ten questions

“The number you submit is yours. The math is just keeping score.”

Calibrate or perish.
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© 2026 The Practice · Brier-graded since day onev0.1.0
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